Publion

The Geopolitics of Carbon Neutrality and Structural Climate Inequality in Southeast Asia

Farid R. Zulkifi1

1University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Published: Jun 04, 2026

Abstract

This paper analyzes Southeast Asia’s carbon neutrality agenda within the context of structural inequality and global power asymmetry. While carbon neutrality is framed as a universal scientific goal, it operates through governance frameworks largely shaped by the interests of powerful states and institutions. Southeast Asian countries, despite their relatively low historical emissions, are expected to adopt externally defined timelines, technologies, and policy standards that often do not reflect their domestic realities. Using a political economy approach, this paper examines how instruments such as climate finance, carbon markets, and international transition partnerships function not as neutral tools, but as mechanisms that entrench dependency and limit sovereign climate planning. Through case studies of Indonesia and Vietnam, and an assessment of regional climate diplomacy, the paper reveals how foreign funding often comes with conditionalities tied to policy reforms, market restructuring, and external oversight. Rather than empowering national institutions, climate cooperation frequently bypasses local actors and inserts international frameworks into domestic governance. The analysis also interrogates how Southeast Asia’s geopolitical position intensifies these constraints, as governments are caught between the strategic agendas of major powers while lacking collective bargaining strength. Ultimately, the paper calls for a redefinition of climate justice from the Global South—one that emphasizes historical responsibility, political autonomy, and context driven transition pathways. Carbon neutrality, if it is to be just, must not reproduce global hierarchies in new forms. By situating Southeast Asia’s climate policy within a postcolonial critique, this paper offers an alternative lens for understanding and reshaping global climate governance.

Keywords

carbon neutralitySoutheast Asiaclimate financegeopolitical inequalitypostcolonial climate justice

Introduction

The article begins by explaining that carbon neutrality has become a central objective in global climate policy. It is often presented as a universal, urgent, and non-negotiable goal. However, the article argues that behind this scientific and moral language lies a complex structure of political interests, historical responsibility, and global inequality.

For Southeast Asia, carbon neutrality is not only an environmental obligation but also a geopolitical burden. The region is pressured to follow climate agendas shaped by powerful states and global institutions. These agendas often do not fully account for Southeast Asia’s development needs, energy insecurity, poverty, and postcolonial structural gaps.

The article notes that Southeast Asian countries contribute a relatively small share of historical global emissions, yet they face severe climate vulnerabilities. Countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines must balance climate commitments with industrial development and social needs. This makes externally imposed carbon neutrality targets difficult and politically unequal.

Dominant climate mitigation approaches rely on technical tools such as emissions modelling, carbon pricing, and transition scenarios. The article criticizes these tools for abstracting away from historical and geopolitical realities. They often ignore colonial legacies, economic dependency, financial constraints, and unequal responsibility in the global climate order.

The article identifies a research gap in the climate governance literature. Existing studies often discuss climate finance, adaptation, and renewable energy transition, but they give less attention to how global power and structural inequality shape carbon neutrality pathways in the Global South. Climate action is too often treated as a matter of capacity and technology rather than hierarchy and political subordination.

The article argues that international mechanisms such as the Paris Agreement, REDD schemes, and energy transition financing are often presented as global solidarity but may contain asymmetrical relations. Developing countries are required to follow externally defined targets and procedures in order to access funding and technology. This constrains the policy autonomy of Southeast Asian states.

Empirical examples from Indonesia and Vietnam show how climate finance can come with conditionalities. Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership involves large funding pledges but is linked to governance reforms, market restructuring, and donor-defined transparency. Vietnam’s energy transition framework is also shaped by foreign investment criteria that may not match local realities.

The article aims to explore how Southeast Asia’s carbon neutrality agenda is shaped by global power relations, conditional finance, and institutional asymmetries. It argues that carbon neutrality should not be treated as a universal pathway imposed from above, but as a context-sensitive process grounded in regional realities, ecological responsibility, political autonomy, and equitable participation in global climate governance.

Research Method

The article uses a political economy approach to analyze Southeast Asia’s carbon neutrality agenda within structures of global inequality and geopolitical asymmetry. It examines how climate finance, carbon markets, international transition partnerships, and foreign policy pressures operate not merely as technical tools, but as mechanisms that shape national policy autonomy and development choices.

The study uses case studies of Indonesia and Vietnam, together with an assessment of regional climate diplomacy in Southeast Asia. The analysis focuses on foreign funding conditionalities, policy reform requirements, market restructuring, external oversight, donor influence, carbon market mechanisms, and the strategic pressures created by major powers such as the United States, China, and the European Union.

Results and Discussion

The article finds that carbon neutrality has become a dominant narrative in global climate governance, but it is not politically neutral. Although presented as a universal solution, carbon neutrality reflects unequal distributions of authority, responsibility, and knowledge. For Southeast Asia, it often functions as a disciplinary framework shaped by developed countries and powerful institutions.

A major result is that the global climate governance regime erases historical emissions and unequal responsibility. Countries that contributed most to climate change now demand shared commitments from all countries. This places Southeast Asian states under pressure to meet reduction targets even though they face limited resources, development needs, and relatively low historical emissions.

Global institutions play a central role in defining legitimate climate action. Organizations such as the UN climate convention and the IPCC set benchmarks, produce data, and assess progress. However, the article argues that these technical standards reflect the capabilities and priorities of powerful countries, making Southeast Asian states appear as underperforming even when they operate under structural constraints.

The article criticizes carbon markets, offset schemes, and emissions trading systems. These mechanisms allow high-emitting actors to finance projects in developing countries while continuing carbon-intensive activities elsewhere. Southeast Asia becomes a site where responsibility is transferred rather than fulfilled, turning climate action into a market transaction.

Technology dependency is another key problem. Renewable energy infrastructure, carbon capture systems, and digital monitoring technologies are largely controlled by developed countries or major powers. Southeast Asian countries therefore depend on foreign investment, patents, expertise, supply chains, and technical standards, which limits autonomous climate planning.

Climate finance is presented as a solution, but the article finds that it often reproduces inequality. Funding is frequently delayed, delivered as loans rather than grants, and attached to policy reforms, market restructuring, or external monitoring. This forces Southeast Asian governments to satisfy donor expectations in order to access basic climate support.

The case of Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership shows how climate funding can be conditional on governance reforms, transparency requirements, market restructuring, and donor priorities. Although such partnerships may accelerate transition on paper, they can also deepen dependency and weaken sovereign control over long-term energy planning.

Vietnam’s energy transition framework is similarly shaped by foreign investment criteria and external expectations. The article argues that while international partnerships may support decarbonization, they also risk inserting international frameworks into domestic governance. National institutions and local actors may be bypassed in favor of donor-led or investor-friendly mechanisms.

The article identifies carbon markets and REDD initiatives as examples of environmental governance that can marginalize local communities. Forests and ecosystems are reduced to carbon metrics, while indigenous knowledge, rural resilience strategies, and informal adaptation practices are often ignored because they do not fit standardized data frameworks.

Strategic pressure from major powers intensifies Southeast Asia’s climate constraints. The United States promotes liberal market-based climate governance, China advances infrastructure and technology-based cooperation through green Belt and Road initiatives, and the European Union uses regulatory standards such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms. Southeast Asian countries must navigate these competing pressures.

ASEAN’s limited collective bargaining power weakens the region’s ability to shape global climate rules. Because Southeast Asian states often negotiate separately, they are more vulnerable to fragmented agreements, donor influence, technical templates, and opportunistic external pressure. A stronger regional climate diplomacy strategy is needed to protect autonomy.

The article concludes that carbon neutrality in Southeast Asia must be redefined through postcolonial climate justice. A just transition should emphasize historical responsibility, political autonomy, regional solidarity, context-driven pathways, and equitable governance. Carbon neutrality should not reproduce global hierarchies in green form, but should support self-determined and socially grounded climate transformation.

Conclusion

This paper has examined the pursuit of carbon neutrality in Southeast Asia as a deeply political process shaped by global power structures, historical inequalities, and strategic pressures. Rather than viewing climate action as a technical challenge, the analysis has located it within broader systems of financial control, geopolitical competition, and institutional dependence. The current global climate regime demands participation without offering structural fairness, creating a gap between ambition and autonomy for countries in the Global South.

By unpacking the architecture of climate finance, carbon markets, and foreign policy interventions, the paper has demonstrated how Southeast Asia is positioned as both a site of implementation and extraction. The region supplies environmental value through carbon credits, natural resources, and policy alignment, yet has little influence over the rules that govern these transactions. Far from being empowered by climate cooperation, many Southeast Asian states remain constrained by external expectations, fragmented institutions, and limited bargaining power.

The dominant frameworks of climate governance continue to prioritize standardization over justice, metrics over meaning, and market logic over historical accountability. Southeast Asia’s vulnerability is treated as a technical risk to be managed, rather than a consequence of systemic exclusion. Efforts to secure financing, attract technology, or gain recognition often come at the cost of policy independence and long term development priorities. These trade offs reflect deeper imbalances in how climate responsibility and legitimacy are distributed globally.

Despite these challenges, Southeast Asia is not without leverage. The region can assert a more active role by rejecting externally defined paths, investing in regional solidarity, and building political narratives rooted in justice rather than performance. Rethinking climate diplomacy from the Global South requires courage to question dominant norms and imagination to propose alternatives. It is not enough to comply with targets; Southeast Asia must demand a system that recognizes its history, respects its sovereignty, and supports its vision of sustainable development.

A just climate future cannot emerge from structures built on unequal terms. It must be forged through resistance, negotiation, and the construction of new political space. For Southeast Asia, this means reframing carbon neutrality not as an end goal imposed from above, but as a process of collective self determination. Only by confronting the asymmetries embedded in global climate governance can the region move from adaptation to transformation, from compliance to justice.

References

Alam, M. M., Aktar, M. A., Idris, N. D. M., & Al-Amin, A. Q. (2023). World energy economics and geopolitics amid COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 policy direction. World Development Sustainability, 2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2023.100048

Asongu, S., Akpan, U. S., & Isihak, S. R. (2018). Determinants of foreign direct investment in fast-growing economies: evidence from the BRICS and MINT countries. Financial Innovation, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0114-0

Blondeel, M., Bradshaw, M. J., Bridge, G., & Kuzemko, C. (2021). The geopolitics of energy system transformation: A review. Geography Compass, 15(7). https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12580

Boa Morte, I. B., Araújo, O. de Q. F., Morgado, C. R. V., & de Medeiros, J. L. (2023). Electrification and decarbonization: a critical review of interconnected sectors, policies, and sustainable development goals. Energy Storage and Saving, 2(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enss.2023.08.004

Boyce, G. A., Launius, S., Williams, J., & Miller, T. (2020). Alter-geopolitics and the feminist challenge to the securitization of climate policy. Gender, Place and Culture, 27(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/0966369X.2019.1620698

Chandra Voumik, L., & Sultana, T. (2022). Impact of urbanization, industrialization, electrification and renewable energy on the environment in BRICS: fresh evidence from novel CS-ARDL model. Heliyon, 8(11). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11457

Couwenberg, J., Dommain, R., & Joosten, H. (2010). Greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical peatlands in south-east Asia. Global Change Biology, 16(6). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02016.x

Dalby, S. (2013). The geopolitics of climate change. Political Geography, 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2013.09.004

Ehrenstein, V. (2018). Carbon sink geopolitics. Economy and Society, 47(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2018.1445569

Eicke, L., & De Blasio, N. (2022). Green hydrogen value chains in the industrial sector—Geopolitical and market implications. Energy Research and Social Science, 93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102847

Hancock, L., & Wollersheim, L. (2021). EU carbon diplomacy: Assessing hydrogen security and policy impact in Australia and Germany. Energies, 14(23). https://doi.org/10.3390/en14238103

Huang, J. (2024). Resources, innovation, globalization, and green growth: The BRICS financial development strategy. Geoscience Frontiers, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101741

IRENA. (2023). Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 33(4).

McLaughlin, H., Littlefield, A. A., Menefee, M., Kinzer, A., Hull, T., Sovacool, B. K., Bazilian, M. D., Kim, J., & Griffiths, S. (2023). Carbon capture utilization and storage in review: Sociotechnical implications for a carbon reliant world. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113215

Oberthür, S. (2016). Where to go from Paris? The European Union in climate geopolitics. Global Affairs, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/23340460.2016.1166332

Paltsev, S. (2016). The complicated geopolitics of renewable energy. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72(6). https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2016.1240476

Pflugmann, F., & De Blasio, N. (2020). The geopolitics of renewable hydrogen in low-carbon energy markets. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.22381/GHIR12120201

Ramachandran, S., Rupakheti, M., Cherian, R., & Lawrence, M. G. (2022). Climate Benefits of Cleaner Energy Transitions in East and South Asia Through Black Carbon Reduction. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.842319

Sovacool, B. K., Baum, C., & Low, S. (2023). The next climate war? Statecraft, security, and weaponization in the geopolitics of a low-carbon future. Energy Strategy Reviews, 45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.101031

Srivastava, N., & Kumar, A. (2022). Minerals and energy interface in energy transition pathways: A systematic and comprehensive review. Journal of Cleaner Production, 376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134354

Stoddard, I., Anderson, K., Capstick, S., Carton, W., Depledge, J., Facer, K., Gough, C., Hache, F., Hoolohan, C., Hultman, M., Hällström, N., Kartha, S., Klinsky, S., Kuchler, M., Lövbrand, E., Nasiritousi, N., Newell, P., Peters, G. P., Sokona, Y., & Williams, M. (2021). Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven’t We Bent the Global Emissions Curve? Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104

Tahir, M., & Burki, U. (2023). Entrepreneurship and economic growth: Evidence from the emerging BRICS economies. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2023.100088

Theiventhran, G. M. N. (2024). Energy as a geopolitical battleground in Sri Lanka. Asian Geographer, 41(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/10225706.2022.2098507

Topalidis, G. T., Kartalis, N. N., Velentzas, J. R., & Sidiropoulou, C. G. (2024). New Developments in Geopolitics: A Reassessment of Theories after 2023. Social Sciences, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13020109

Ulloa, A. (2017). The geopolitics of carbonized nature and the zero carbon citizen. South Atlantic Quarterly, 116(1). https://doi.org/10.1215/00382876-3749359

Yang, Y., Xia, S., & Jin, Z. (2023). Energy transition reshapes geopolitics: Logic and research frontiers. Dili Xuebao/Acta Geographica Sinica, 78(9). https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202309012

Yang, Y., Xia, S., & Qian, X. (2022). Geopolitics of the energy transition. Dili Xuebao/Acta Geographica Sinica, 77(8). https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202208014

Yang, Y., Xia, S., & Qian, X. (2023). Geopolitics of the energy transition. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 33(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2101-2

Yuan, X., Su, C. W., Umar, M., Shao, X., & Lobonţ, O. R. (2022). The race to zero emissions: Can renewable energy be the path to carbon neutrality? Journal of Environmental Management, 308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114648

Zhang, L., & Ponomarenko, T. (2023). Directions for Sustainable Development of China’s Coal Industry in the Post-Epidemic Era. Sustainability, 15(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086518

Download